Are hurricane and other weather forecasting models useful?
Tower Hill's CCO Robert Johnson is one of five CLM members who answered this month's question.
“Weather forecasting models, in my experience, are very useful in preseason planning for disaster response as well as pre-event planning in order to determine the number of resources needed in specific locations.”
Robert T. Johnson, Chief Claims Officer, Tower Hill Insurance Group. CLM Fellow since 2011.
“ Forecasting models are helpful for our overall business planning and preparedness. Models analyze historical data and predict future weather patterns. However, they cannot predict where or how many storms will result in a landfall event.”
Jeffrey T. Bowman, President & CEO, Crawford & Company. CLM Fellow since 2012.
“Hurricane and weather forecasting models are evolving fast. The long-range models are still not perfectly reliable, but the short-range models save lives. They allow us to mobilize claims professionals before hurricanes even hit land.”
Jane Tutoki, CEO, Cunningham Lindsey. CLM Fellow since 2010.
“Interesting? For sure. But the weatherman has a good chance of getting things wrong no more than two or three days out, so I sure don’t rely on his predictions months in advance.”
Lyle Donan, President, Donan. CLM Fellow since 2013.
“Forecasting is a science, but it is not absolute. Using the most advanced technology, hurricane models provide us the greatest amount of time to plan and prepare, unlike other weather disasters. You simply have to avoid complacency and be ready.”
Jeffrey W. Johnson, Founding Partner, Johnson Law Group. CLM Member since 2009.
Percent improvement of the predictions made by the National Hurricane Center over the last decade.
Number of additional warning minutes that drone use could provide during severe storms.
Number of deep-ocean and reporting of tsunami (DART) stations in the U.S. tsunami detection array.
Number of earthquakes the U.S. Geological Survey locates each year—nearly 50 per day.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
The number of calculations per second supercomputers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research can process.